What is India doing to ensure that its airports are equipped to meet future demand? Anne Paylor investigates.

With passenger traffic and aircraft movements estimated to be as much as 23% up on last year, India is without doubt one of the hottest places on earth for aviation growth.

Such rampant growth brings many challenges, of course, and India now has to ensure that it has the airport facilities to cope with demand and take advantage of the aviation opportunities ahead.

Today, India has a total of 454 operational, non-operational, abandoned and disused airports and airstrips. Of these, 138 are owned by India’s defence forces, 97 by the Airports Authority of India (AAI), 158 by various state governments and 61 are in private hands.

In 1997, when it published its comprehensive Policy on Airport Infrastructure, India’s Ministry of Civil Aviation forecast approximately half that current level of growth, with the growth rate slowly declining after 2012-2013. Even those projections, the document stated, were “on a liberal scale for the purpose of future planning of aircraft and airport infrastructure capacity in the country”.

It warned that even based on those now conservative projections, the next 20 years would see “a quantum jump in the projected traffic – four times in passenger and six times in cargo traffic”.

The Ministry of Civil Aviation stressed it would, therefore, “be necessary to take a host of measures so that the ground infrastructure keeps pace with the growth of traffic”.

Most of the major civil airports are owned and/or operated by AAI, which was created in 1995 through the merger of the National Airports Authority with the International Airports Authority of India.

AAI is responsible for creating, upgrading, maintaining and managing civil aviation infrastructure, both on the ground and in India’s airspace. This includes ensuring overall safe and secure operations and the construction, modification and management of passenger and cargo terminals.

Its 13 international airports include Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport – managed by a GVK Industries spearheaded joint venture – and both Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport and Hyderabad’s newly opened Rajiv Gandhi International Airport which are managed by GMR led consortiums.

AAI chairman, Dr K Ramalingam, told Asia-Pacific Airports that the higher than expected growth in traffic could be attributed to a number of key factors.

In addition to “liberalisation and economic reforms by the government of India that includes the country’s Open Skies policy and liberal bilaterals”, Ramalingam says that “GDP growth of between 8% and 9% and the rapid expansion of higher income groups” have all played a part.

He believes that the combination of factors will ensure annual traffic growth of least 15% for the next 10 to 15 years, meaning that passenger numbers will soar from today’s 120mppa to upwards of 280mppa in a little over six years.

To help handle this growth, infrastructure development activities either planned or already underway include the expansion and upgrade of Kolkata–Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose International Airport and Chennai International airports and the modernisation of 35 non-metro airports.

AAI is also placing special emphasis on the development of airport infrastructure in the North East of the country, with new greenfield airports planned for Pakyong (Sikkim), Cheithu (Nagaland) and Banderdewa (Arunachal Pradesh).

Development at Kolkata will include a new 180,000sqm terminal building that will raise the gateway’s capacity to in excess of 20mppa.

The new terminal will feature 104 check-in counters and 15 boarding bridges. The airport, which currently handles 5.4mppa, will also get a new control tower as part of the $465 million revamp.

AAI has also set aside a further $450 million for a new integrated terminal building at Chennai International Airport that will equip the gateway to handle 30mppa – including up to eight million international passengers. The 140,000sqm facility will boast 140 check-in desks and seven boarding bridges.

Agra, Amritsar, Bhopal, Coimbatore, Dimapur, Goa, Jaipur, Lucknow, Madurai and Trivandrum are among the 35 non-metro airports earmarked for facelift by AAI before 2010. The airport operator is planning to invest a total of $1.7 billion on upgrading the gateways, some of which will also benefit from private sector development of their landside facilities.

Beyond 2010, a further 45 airports have been earmarked for expansion and development.

Elsewhere, Hyderabad’s new privately operated greenfield gateway will shortly be followed by a second in Bangalore when the giant new Bengaluru International Airport at Devanahalli opens for business.

Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport is to get a new Terminal 3 and third runway by 2010 as part of an ongoing $1.2 billion redevelopment programme 100% funded by operator Delhi International Airport Limited (DIAL).

DIAL – which counts India’s GMR Group (50.1%), AAI (26%), Fraport (10%), Eraman Malaysia (10%) and the India Development Fund (3.9%) as shareholders – believes that with the addition of further terminals and runways the airport could ultimately handle in excess of 100mppa.

And the consortium responsible for operating Mumbai Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport – India’s busiest gateway handling 25.2 million passengers and 522,000 tonnes of cargo in 2007 – is investing $1.7 billion on the total transformation of its outdated facilities.

Owned by the GVK Group (37%), Airports Company South Africa (10%), Bidvest (27%) and AAI (26%), operator Mumbai International Airport Ltd (MIAL) is confident that the modernisation programme will equip the gateway to handle up to 40 million passengers and one million tonnes of cargo per annum.

Both DIAL and MIAL were awarded long-term concessions to operate and develop Delhi and Mumbai airports respectively when the Indian Government realised that ‘astronomical sums’ would be required for the upgrade projects necessary to meet future aviation demand.

Other measures cited by the airport policy document as means of generating additional revenue for aviation infrastructure development include optimisation of revenue from aeronautical charges, through negotiation with IATA; a ‘revolutionary thrust’ towards raising revenue from non-aeronautical commercial sources; rationalisation and the optimisation of airport charges.

The policy also points to the use of more innovative financial resources in the form of external assistance, such as public bonds, external commercial borrowings, public issues and loans from government/financial institutions. AAI has recently been accorded ‘AAA’ stable credit outlook rating.

In the 2006-07 financial year, AAI earned revenue of $867 million, with a net profit of $200 million. During the year it invested more than $220 million on capital expenditure for development of various infrastructure facilities, a figure that, AAI says, is going to be more than double during subsequent years.

Asia-Pacific Airports 2008 Issue 1

How is passenger traffic holding up at Australia’s regional airports? Peta Tomlinson investigates.

Australia is known as the ‘the lucky country’, in reference to a range of endearing features.

Its remoteness is one, and its vastness another.

Although both can be viewed as a positive or a negative, depending on one’s perspective, it’s reassuring to know that when problems occur elsewhere in the world, Australia is far enough away not to be too bothered.

This certainly seems to be the case in regard to the global aviation industry.

With airlines facing an unprecedented crisis due to weak demand and fluctuating fuel prices, airports worldwide are feeling the pinch – most everywhere, it seems, except Australia.

While passenger numbers are down elsewhere, the major hubs of Melbourne and Sydney have recorded ‘best ever’ months.

And the regional gateways are travelling well, too.

Why? There is no doubt that Australia’s regional destinations have benefited from cut-price or even ‘free’ airfares offered by the likes of nofrills international carriers Tiger and AirAsia.

A strong Australian dollar also helps when value for money is sought.

But as Cam Macphee, aviation business development manager at Brisbane Airport Corporation, points out, what counts for much in these uncertain times is that Australia is still seen as a safe destination.

“Australia is insulated from many of the world’s problems, and this is a critical consideration for all airlines or potential airlines that are going to be flying here,” Macphee says.

The lure of a ‘remote’ travel experience is a further drawcard for Australia’s regional airports, particularly for Perth in Western Australia, the closest gateway to outback destinations and the vast Indian Ocean coastline.

International volume at Perth grew 8.

5% in June, with domestic up 3.3%.

Many visitors say they choose Perth for an “authentic Australian experience”, noting in particular the pristine environment and laid back lifestyle.

From an international perspective, explains Brian Krause, Perth Airport’s aviation business development manager, Perth has benefited from capacity increases from a number of new carriers entering the market, with many of the new services from low-cost carriers (LCCs).

Targeting low-cost carriers was a key strategy to help Perth Airport through the current climate, and it seems to have worked.

In May 2008 Perth had a 15% share of Australia’s LCC capacity – now it enjoys 25%.

Another strategy was engagement with existing carriers to ensure they are well informed about the opportunities in the Perth market, including economic and demographic information, Krause says.

“We are constantly reviewing available information to better understand our markets.

Using that information, we consider which airlines are best positioned to potentially serve underserved markets.

Apart from targeting LCCs for the past couple of years, we also look to make sure that our existing and target airlines are updated with enough information to build the business case for serving Perth, and that their aircraft allocation decisions are made on a fully informed basis.

” New or expanded services launched from Perth in the past year include a daily Jetstar service to Singapore, a Perth–Denpasar route from Pacific Blue, and daily AirAsia X flights to Kuala Lumpur.

Indonesia AirAsia commenced daily Denpasar services in July 2009, adding further to Perth’s LCC capacity.

“A number of carriers also increased capacity by changing aircraft types or adding frequency,” adds Krause.

“While not adding as much capacity as a new route, these capacity increases have still been taken up to a large extent.”

Most significant have been the decisions by Cathay Pacific and South African Airways to introduce daily services on their respective Perth–Hong Kong and Perth–Johannesburg routes.

“The net result of these changes is that there is continued growth in outbound resident travel, taking advantage of Perth’s close proximity to South East Asia and the new low-cost carrier services.

There has also been strong growth in some inbound markets, with visitors from Malaysia up over 80% in recent months.

Perth has also benefited from growth in visitors from South Africa and New Zealand, up 13% and 10% respectively in the 11 months to the end of May 2009.”

The attractions of South Australia’s world famous wine regions, including the Barossa and Clare Valleys, the Adelaide Hills, Southern Vales and Fleurieu Peninsula, have also held Adelaide Airport in good stead.

Buoyed by a strong domestic market, Adelaide in May had the second best growth of the top five Australian gateways – and even though the rise was “only 2%” according managing director Phil Baker, he notes that it was an increase that many industries might envy.

Malcolm Andrews, Adelaide Airport’s general manager, business development, believes that the gateway is “faring well”, considering the global scenario.

“March was our record month for domestic passengers, and overall for the 12 months ending May we were 3% up for domestic traffic, 1.2% for international and 2.6% overall.

Domestic-wise, April and May were again the best figures ever for both months,” he enthuses.

ompetitive international arena.

Even so, route development is continuing, with Adelaide still bagging new airlines and new destinations.

“Pacific Blue, for example, launched two Bali flights last December – our first since September 2006 – and added a third in June,” adds Andrews.

“Also, for the first time we have introduced two non-stop flights to Nadi (Fiji) with Pacific Blue.

Take-up has been a little slow but we remain convinced that in the long-term this will be a winner.”

From an international perspective, the ace up Adelaide’s sleeve is that it remains relatively underserved.

With over 47% of outbound passengers going via other gateways, this leaves large chunks of the market untapped.

Adelaide is seeking to overcome this by growing its suite of non-stop destinations.

Adelaide Airport Limited is targeting a number of airlines servicing destinations it views as ‘realistic’.

These include Bangkok, Christchurch, Los Angeles, the Middle East and Mainland China in the relatively near-term, followed by Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, Seoul and Japan.

While many will come to visit South Australia’s world-class wineries, gourmet food, unspoiled beaches and outback, they won’t all be tourists.

In one market segment alone, 50,000 Philippine guest workers can potentially come to work in South Australia.

And with three major Australian universities and plans for two British universities, Adelaide is set to grow as a hub for students from all over Asia.

Nonetheless, Adelaide is being cautious.

While still planning for expansion, it will not move into the construction phase until “the traffic situation improves and the financial markets return to normal”.

“Once that happens, and taking into account South Australia’s rapidly expanding mining and defense industries, there would appear to be a strong upside for several years to come,” says Andrews.

More sunshine in the economic gloom can be found in Queensland, thanks largely to the various airlines’ discount pricing.

Brisbane’s recent results have included an “off the scale” month in April, when international arrivals jumped 6.9%, with domestic up 3%.

This prompted Gert-Jan de Graaff, Brisbane Airport Corporation Pty Limited (BAC) general manager of commercial services to note that, with lower airfares and more choices, “air travel now rates very much as a discretionary purchase alongside concert tickets, a new TV or a big night out”.

While Brisbane’s financial growth for 2009 is lower than originally forecast, it is still ahead of last year.

BAC is now forecasting modest international and domestic growth for the next financial year or so, then returning to a long-term growth trend of 4%–6%.

Brisbane’s Macphee says international route development work is continuing with established network carriers over key hubs to either improve timings for connections, increasing frequency to at least daily when demand picks up and up-gauging aircraft where necessary.

“We are also talking to several other long-haul network carriers not currently operating to Brisbane with a three to five year time horizon.”

In one example, BAC is in discussions with Chinese airlines China Eastern, China Southern and Air China to fill the gap, as there are no non-stop Brisbane to Mainland China air services, despite annual passenger flows to China growing to nearly 130,000 in the past 12 months.

Further north, the combined effects of Swine Flu and the global financial crisis have hit Cairns Airport.

“These factors have further exacerbated an existing downturn in our key international market of Japan,” explains Stephen Gregg, CEO at Cairns, Australia’s largest regional airport.

What to do? Apart from partnering with tourism authorities to consolidate existing markets, the airport has prioritised working with its airline partners to ensure their existing routes into Cairns are sustainable, admits Gregg.

“We also continue to build new partnerships and look forward to working with all our airline partners to develop new routes to link with key emerging markets once conditions are again conducive to such expansion,” he says.

But there is good news for Cairns on the route development front.

Jetstar has announced plans to reintroduce a direct Cairns–Osaka service in December this year with four flights per week, complementing the Cairns–Gold Coast route launched by the airline earlier this year.

Other new services this year include Cairns–Townsville, operated by Virgin Blue, and Cairns to the mining centre of Mt Isa, operated by Regional Pacific.

A key reason for continued optimism in Australia’s regional gateways, observes Brisbane’s Macphee, is the country’s strong economic fundamentals.

Unlike most other developed economies, he points out, Australia has not yet fallen into recession.

“As a result, consumer confidence is higher than in other regions of the world, making Australia a safer destination for airlines.

Furthermore, Australians are still eager to travel overseas with a relatively strong dollar, ensuring a continual attraction for foreign airlines in the Australian outbound market,” says Macphee.

Asia-Pacific Airports 2009 Issue 4

Are we about to enter a new era for the security screening of passengers at airports? Joe Bates investigates.

Investment in airport security is expected to soar this year as gateways across the world ramp up their explosive detection efforts in the wake of the alleged Christmas Day bomb plot.

Billions of dollars were spent on upgrading airport security in 2009 and the figure is expected to jump significantly this year with the introduction of full-body scanners following the alleged attempt by Nigerian, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, to detonate a bomb onboard Northwest Airlines flight 253 to Detroit.

Vancouver International Airport was one of the first Asia-Pacific gateways to install full-body scanners when it introduced a machine earlier this year.

Elsewhere, India’s government has pledged to install full-body scanners at Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport by May and then roll them out across the country’s international gateways if they prove a success.

Other Asia-Pacific countries announcing plans to introduce full-body scanners in the coming months include the Philippines and South Korea.

Bangkok Suvarnabhumi has already removed its single full-body scanner after an ‘unsuccessful’ trial but Airports of Thailand (AoT) president, Serirat Prasutanond, insists that the operator will shortly launch trials of new equipment.

Australia’s airports are also set to get full body scanners as part of the government’s A$200 million plan to upgrade security at the nation’s gateways.

The controversial scanners will start appearing in airports next year alongside an increased number of police and sniffer dogs amid a wider security presence.

“No nation can afford to be complacent when it comes to security,” declares Australia’s Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd.

“The government’s highest priority is the safety and security of Australians.

” A Sydney Airport spokesman adds: “In relation to scanners, Sydney Airport will meet the implementation schedules determined by the Australian government.

The process of implementation is currently being worked through with passenger flow rates, costs and the management of departure performance being studied at present.

“As with any significant change to security requirements, we will implement this carefully to ensure we have consistency of application (the process of screening) and we fully understand how the best security outcome can be achieved.

We also need to provide appropriate standards of facilitation to passengers and make sure we sensibly address issues such as privacy matters and how passengers who are concerned about being screened by this technology are handled.”

The surge in orders has led one manufacturer, L-3 Security & Detection Systems, to reveal that it has upped production to 50 machines a month in order to keep up with demand.

The big question, of course, is would full-body scanners have detected the explosives allegedly hidden in the underpants of Abdulmutallab? Manufacturers L3 Security & Detection Systems, Smiths Detection and Rapiscan Systems insist that body scanners provide aviation with the best technological solution to the threat of concealed weapons and explosives on passengers.

However, the many variables involved in airport security ranging from operator training and performance to the physical layout of the checkpoint mean that none could categorically state that the machines are infallible.

Rapiscan’s vice president global marketing, Andrew Goldsmith, explains: “It is difficult to answer that question because detection depends on a number of non-technical factors.

What I can say with 100% certainty is that when used by trained operators, our full-body scanners significantly increase the likelihood of detecting small, well concealed non-metallic threats compared to metal detectors, physical pat-down searches or other people screening technologies.”

This assessment is supported by Smiths Detection’s director strategy and communication, Bernhard Semling, who notes: “Body scanners are capable of detecting the explosive substances allegedly used on flight 253, but while it is possible to detect such objects, providing an absolute guarantee that they would have done is not possible because of the other variables involved in the screening process.”

L3 Security & Detection System’s senior vice president, Bill Frain, simply says: “Our systems are specifically designed to find this type of threat – including a wide range of plastic, liquid and other metallic and non-metallic threats hidden on the body.”

So what kind of technology are we talking about and how safe is it? There are currently two main passenger scanning technologies available that can scan the human body for potential threats – backscatter and millimetre wave (MMW).

MMW beams millimetre wave energy over a person to create a 3D image of the human body while backscatter technology bounces very low energy x-rays off of a person to generate an image.

Both processes are estimated to take an average of 10 seconds including the time it takes security staff to assess the image.

“The timing varies depending on the system and the technology employed,” says Semling.

“Image capture can be instantaneous for real-time systems or at most take a few seconds.

Including time for assessment of the image, the process is comparable in time to the existing screening procedures based on metal detection and hand search, but has the potential to be more time-efficient and for sure is more passenger-friendly.”

One of the advantages of backscatter technology is that it has been well studied, understood and regulated for decades and, as a result, received a clean bill of health from a number of medical bodies.

They include the American College of Radiology, which recently noted “an airline passenger flying cross-country is exposed to more radiation from the flight than from screening by one of these devices.”

While the US’s National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurement (NCRP) reports that a passenger would need to experience 100 backscatter scans per year to reach what they classify as a “negligible individual dose”.

MMW security scans pose no health risks whatsoever as unlike certain types of medical scanner, they do not use X-rays.

L3 Security & Detection System’s Frain, enthuses: “Millimetre waves are non-ionizing and do not penetrate the skin like X-rays.

The energy levels generated by our machines are a fraction of what is generated by commonly used household devices.”

Without a doubt, the most controversial aspect of full-body scanners is their intrusive nature, and public fears about their introduction have not been helped by newspaper headlines warning that passengers face virtual strip searches at airports.

Indeed, feelings about the issue are running so high that one US lawmaker recently declared “we don’t need to look at naked eight year-olds and grandmothers to secure airplanes.”

Amsterdam Schiphol, for one, is adamant that its MMW ‘Security Scan’ devices pose no privacy threat as the image shown is a stylised human figure and not their actual body.

Passengers simply walk into the device and raise their hands above their head for three seconds, and walk out again.

The machine automatically highlights any ‘foreign objects’ on the stylised human image and, if it cannot be identified, the passenger will be subjected to a hand search.

The Transport Security Administration (TSA) in the US claims that blurring faces and other body parts together with deleting images immediately after they have been viewed safeguards passenger modesty.

Undergoing a full-body scan in the US is also 100% optional, although those refusing to be screened will be subjected to a ‘full-body pat down’.

In the US, the screener that observes the images is located in a ‘remote location’ away from the checkpoint so avoiding any potential embarrassment for the passenger.

Not surprisingly, the equipment manufacturers believe that there is little foundation to the privacy concerns surrounding full-body scanners.

L3’s Frain says: “Our machines offer multiple levels of privacy protection that can be customised to reinforce privacy processes and procedures.

They include remote monitoring, silhouetted and blurred images and deletion after use.

In terms of the silhouettes, the 3D black and white image the remote analyst sees makes it virtually impossible to identify anyone.”

Semling assures: “Smiths Detection’s full-body scanning equipment is designed to fully address basic rights issues such as privacy, data security and health protection.”

Says Rapiscan’s Goldsmith: “Do I believe that they contravene a person’s basic human rights? Absolutely not! We believe that when used as part of a well-designed and well-regulated aviation security programme, full-body scanners can help protect the rights of passengers to travel safely.

In fact, many passengers find them less intrusive than physical pat downs.”

What is clear, however, is that full-body scanners should be just one of the security technologies and procedures adopted by an airport to ensure safety on the ground and in the sky.

Smiths Detection’s Semling certainly has no qualms about admitting that full-body scanners are far from the only answer when it comes to detecting explosives/weapons hidden internally or under a passengers’ clothing.

“There is no single solution to a threat situation as complex as that presented at an aviation checkpoint.

Body scanners are a major improvement over the current process that relies on metal detection and random physical search on a subset of passengers,” he says.

“Other highly reliable technologies such as trace detection provide complimentary and orthogonal capability.

Combinations of these technologies in a layered approach provide a more comprehensive detection capability and help close as many security gaps as possible.”

Although not opposed to the installation of full-body scanners at airports, the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) has voiced concern at the global reaction to the alleged Christmas Day bomb plot.

“Flying is widely recognised as the safest form of travel, reinforced by a robust regime of established security procedures.

Unfortunately, it is human nature that each new security incident prompts a desire to introduce yet more security measures,” AAPA says in a statement.

“There is always political pressure to react, but this often smacks of the need to be seen to be doing something rather than thinking through the appropriate action to take.

“The public understand that no society can credibly claim to provide perfect security.

It takes real political maturity to remain calm, and not fall into the trap of knee jerk reactions, such as the imposition of new security measures of unproven effectiveness.

Additional security measures are only justified when it can be demonstrated that the benefits outweigh the additional burdens they impose on society.

“Treating each of the six million passengers who fly every day as potential terrorists and subjecting them to virtual strip searches and patdowns already borders on the absurd, particularly when compared to our approach to public security in other aspects of our daily lives.

Doing so comes at a cost, already measured in tens of billions of dollars annually.

“Whilst new screening technologies are constantly under evaluation, including full-body scanners and automatic explosive detection systems, there is insufficient evidence regarding their effectiveness to justify their immediate deployment, not to mention unresolved health and privacy issues.”

The huge anticipated spend on full-body scanners this year will ensure that over $40 billion has been invested on improving aviation’s security infrastructure since 9/11, according to reports carried out by Washington-based industry tracker, Homeland Security Research Corporation.

In the US alone, recent events have resulted in an additional $1 billion being earmarked for aviation security, with a sizeable chunk of the total being set aside for the nationwide roll out of full-body scanners at airports. Elsewhere, Europe’s airports are believed to be facing a possible €1 billion bill for the new body scanners on top of the €1 billion investment they will be required to ensure that they comply with the new Liquids, Aerosols and Gels (LAGS) regulations.

Indeed, ACI Europe calculates that security expenses at the continent’s gateways have risen from an average of between 5% and 8% of an airport’s operating costs pre-9/11 to about 35% today.

It also notes that 41% of airport staff now work in security related jobs.

While Frost & Sullivan expect spending on airport security in the Asia-Pacific region to exceed $6.1 billion this year in response to the terrorist threat and rising traffic demand.

Recent events have proved that terrorism still remains a very real threat to aviation nearly a decade on from 9/11, and with that threat constantly evolving, clearly the big spend on new security equipment is set to go on for the foreseeable future.

Asia-Pacific Airports 2010 Issue 1

What does 2010 hold for traffic growth at Mainland China’s airports? Derek Sadubin reports.

Beijing Capital International Airport’s passenger numbers exceeded 65 million in the 12 months ended December 31, 2009, making it by far the largest airport in China, and the third largest airport in the world, according to ACI.

Beijing is on track to overtake London Heathrow this year and could overtake Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta as the world’s busiest as early as 2012, if recent trends are maintained.

By then, Beijing will again be operating close to its design capacity. The pressure is now on officials to make some progress on the much-delayed second Beijing project, reports the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation.

Beijing Capital, which reported passenger growth of 16.8% in 2009 (with passenger traffic up 170% from 2001 levels), was the only airport amongst the world’s Top 10 to report growth in the challenging year.

Only seven of the world’s 30 largest airports reported growth last year (of these, Beijing reported the strongest growth, while Jakarta and Guangzhou also reported double-digit growth).

Hong Kong (45.6 million) was 13th largest, while Guangzhou Airport was the 22nd largest airport worldwide in 2009, handling 37 million passengers.

Mainland Chinese airports A total of 14 Mainland Chinese airports reported annual traffic of more than ten million passengers in 2009, with all the major airports handling more than five million passengers per annum, reporting solid year-on-year growth

The smaller airports of Chengdu, Changsha, Sanya, Harbin and Guiyan reported growth of above 30%.

Beijing was also the fastest growing of the nation’s five largest airports (the others being Guangzhou, Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao and Shenzhen), driven by strong year-on-year growth in the first half of 2009, off a weaker base than in the same period in 2008.

Airports in China have been defying the weakness experienced by most of their global counterparts, as they benefit from the strong recovery of Chinese domestic travel demand, driven partly by government stimulus measures, which have buoyed the economy.

The rise in size and global importance of China’s airports is set to continue, with the CAAC now forecasting a 12% increase in passenger and freight traffic this year from 2009’s 230 million passengers and 4.46 million tonnes of cargo.

China to surge past the US Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) director, Li Jiaxiang, expects passenger numbers to grow to 700 million passengers per year by 2020 – and to double that to 1.5 billion by 2030.

Meanwhile, a forecast issued by the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the US market over a similar timeframe provides a clear window into the differences between mature and developing markets.

US mainline and regional enplanements already reached 704 million in 2009 – 11 years before China is supposed to get there.

But the growth rate tells the tale.

The FAA’s 20-year forecast for fiscal years 2010-2030 predicts domestic passenger enplanements will increase by a comparatively meagre 0.5% in 2010 and then grow at an average of an anaemic 2.5% per year during the remaining forecast period; this contrasts strikingly with the robust Chinese predictions. It also looks as though China will also outpace the US at the end of the forecast period; no surprise there, given the growing economy coupled with the differences in population.

While the FAA expects the US market to reach a billion passengers by 2023, enplanements will be 1.21 billion at the forecast period end in 2030, well shy of the 1.5 billion expected that year by Chinese airlines.

As recently as 2005, the administration projected the US market would grow to a billion passengers by 2015.

Today, a mere five years on, the FAA does not see the US market reaching that size until 2023 – eight years later than the prediction it made so recently.

There is much more to this than merely a status issue – although that is always important too, especially when it comes to marketing US aviation products, coming from a position as a world leader, as opposed to a diminishing power.

This is because the difference in growth rates translates immediately to job creation, to business activity and to tourism potential.

To support the near-term rapid growth, China plans to acquire 218 aircraft in 2010 to keep pace with passenger demand.

CAAC added that in 2010, China will invest $13.2 billion in fixed assets and will implement 25 key construction projects, following the construction or renovation of 22 airports in 2009.

Beijing is committed to maintaining this level of investment for years to come, helping China to keep moving up the global aviation league tables.

Asia-Pacific Airports 2010 Issue 2