Victoria University’s Terry De Lacy discusses aviation’s impact on the environment.
Name: Terry De Lacy
Age: 60
Job title: Professor sustainable tourism and environmental policy, Victoria University, Melbourne
Nationality: Australian
Time in aviation industry: None
Best known for: Co-developer of the ‘Earthcheck’ sustainability benchmarking system used globally to underpin Green Globe certification
Little known fact: He unsuccessfully stood for federal parliament in 1972
What is the worst-case scenario of climate change and over what timescale are we talking about?
Using emission scenarios and a range of climate models, a warming of 0.7 to 1.7°C is projected by 2020, rising to 1.1 to 6.4°C by 2100. So if we do nothing to mitigate then by 2100, we might expect the earth to warm by six degrees. The consequence of this would be horrific. Most coastal cities could be devastated and most small island states would disappear. The good news is this is probably only about 1% likely to happen, although how many of us would hop on a plane if it were 1% likely to crash?
Should we be worried?
The politics is around what action nations, and most importantly nations acting together, should/will take to reduce GHG emissions and thus lower the risk of climate change impacts. The associated issue is what will this cost. The economists, Nicholas Stern in the UK and Ross Garnaut in Australia, have carefully analysed this in recent reports and the economics indicate we can readily afford to take action to substantially reduce the risks. Unfortunately, I am less optimistic about the politics of being able to take the appropriate action.
Do you believe that tackling climate change is the greatest challenge to the sustainability of tourism?
Tourism’s close connections to the environment and climate make it a highly climate-sensitive sector similar to agriculture, insurance, energy and transportation. Garnaut highlights the potentially devastating effect on naturebased tourism from projected climate change impacts. Pacific tourism is particularly vulnerable to climate change due to the climate sensitivity of the natural environmental assets upon which the industry is based, the industry’s reliance on the longhaul travel market and the vulnerability of infrastructure, especially in coastal areas.
Is it inevitable that the world’s poorest countries will suffer the most from a global decline in air travel?
Tourism is the major export earner in 46 of the 49 least developed countries (LDCs). All are dependent on tourism, which can contribute significantly to rural development, agricultural transformation, community enrichment, cultural preservation and social empowerment, particularly for women. Almost without exception, LDCs are long-haul destinations and as such tourism in LDCs is totally dependent on safe cheap and reliable air transport.
Has the aviation industry been signalled out for unfair criticism as it is responsible for just 2% of GHG emissions?
Yes it has, though travel and tourism generally – and transport in particular – is a contributor to the emission of GHGs. Aviation is a focal point, not only through production of GHGs, but because aircraft deliver them at high altitudes where they have an increased impact (the radiative forcing effect) and the contrails are highly visible and photogenic.
What can the industry do to counter negative newspapers headlines?
Be proactive, not reactive and defensive. Get involved in the policy decision process. Get your own house in order and look for partners with political credibility such as tourism destinations and support them. Form partnerships with the least developed countries and their international support (NGO) organisations.
Do you support Emissions Trading and is this workable in a vast region like Asia-Pacific?
I personally am somewhat cynical about the capacity of our national and global politics to deliver what is clearly a complex system that requires enormous global co-operation. Consequently I believe that we need a multi-policy approach that includes regulation, consumer based approaches and market strategies.
What more can airports do?
Each airport should develop its own adaptation (risk management) to climate change strategy. They should measure GHG emissions with a bespoke airport protocol and certify with a bespoke airport sustainability standard. Airports should also work with the tourism industry to deliver offsets to destinations. In other words, what gets measured gets managed!
Has the world finally woken up to the importance of protecting the environment?
I hope so.
Asia-Pacific Airports 2008 Issue 3
